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Daily Report : The market environment is losing some legs

Jason Goepfert
2024-12-23
Two long-term measures of stock market health, the McClellan Summation Index and Net New Highs - Lows, have deteriorated so much they're now negative. Stocks tend to show poor annualized returns and limited upside when this is the case. One mitigating factor is the quick reversal of some of the damage late last week.
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Headlines

The market environment is losing some legs: Two long-term measures of stock market health, the McClellan Summation Index and Net New Highs - Lows, have deteriorated so much they're now negative. Stocks tend to show poor annualized returns and limited upside when this is the case. One mitigating factor is the quick reversal of some of the damage late last week.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 37% Dumb Money Confidence: 43%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The market environment is losing some legs

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Two long-term measures of stock market health, the McClellan Summation Index and Net New Highs - Lows, have deteriorated so much they're now negative. Stocks tend to show poor annualized returns and limited upside when this is the case. One mitigating factor is the quick reversal of some of the damage late last week.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Rydex Sector Breadth
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 42%
Bearish for Stocks
Equity Hedging Index
NYSE Arms Index
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
% Showing Excess Optimism
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
Major Index Combo
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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