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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Dec 20 - A year of bulls, breadth warnings, year-end seasonal sectors

Jason Goepfert
2024-12-20
This week, we saw that as we head into year-end, 2024 has seen among the most-ever weeks with bullish sentiment, even as trends deteriorate. Value stocks have been hit hard and suffered a historic losing streak, pressing them to a multi-decade low relative to growth. But small and value stocks tend to rally into a New Year. More than a third of energy stocks fell to a new low.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Dec 20 - A year of bulls, breadth warnings, year-end seasonal sectors: This week, we saw that as we head into year-end, 2024 has seen among the most-ever weeks with bullish sentiment, even as trends deteriorate. Value stocks have been hit hard and suffered a historic losing streak, pressing them to a multi-decade low relative to growth. But small and value stocks tend to rally into a New Year. More than a third of energy stocks fell to a new low.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 37% Dumb Money Confidence: 41%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Dec 20 - A year of bulls, breadth warnings, year-end seasonal sectors

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that as we head into year-end, 2024 has seen among the most-ever weeks with bullish sentiment, even as trends deteriorate. Value stocks have been hit hard and suffered a historic losing streak, pressing them to a multi-decade low relative to growth. But small and value stocks tend to rally into a New Year. More than a third of energy stocks fell to a new low.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 16%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE High/Low Ratio
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Rydex Sector Breadth
VIX
VIX Term Structure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 33%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
% Showing Excess Optimism
SKEW Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
Major Index Combo
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Mutual Fund Cash Level
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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