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Daily Report : Making the most of the year-end rally

Jason Goepfert
2024-12-17
The stock market tends to perform well at the end of the year. Two factors have historically stood out. Details herein.
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Headlines

Making the most of the year-end rally: The stock market tends to perform well at the end of the year. Two factors have historically stood out. Details herein.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 33% Dumb Money Confidence: 52%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Making the most of the year-end rally

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
The stock market tends to perform well at the end of the year. Two factors have historically stood out. Details herein.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 5%
Bullish for Stocks
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 46%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SPY Liquidity Premium
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Pessimism
% Showing Excess Optimism
VIX
VIX Term Structure
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

Click here to view the Phase Table on the site.

Ranks

Click here to view on the site (Ranks tab on the Dashboard).

Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.