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Daily Report : A year with (almost) uninterrupted optimism

Jason Goepfert
2024-12-16
During 2024, there was only a week or two when bulls didn't dominate investor surveys. Both the AAII and Investor's Intelligence surveys showed almost all weeks with significantly more bulls than bears. After similar years with persistent optimism, the S&P 500 tended to suffer poor returns.
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Headlines

A year with (almost) uninterrupted optimism: During 2024, there was only a week or two when bulls didn't dominate investor surveys. Both the AAII and Investor's Intelligence surveys showed almost all weeks with significantly more bulls than bears. After similar years with persistent optimism, the S&P 500 tended to suffer poor returns.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 30% Dumb Money Confidence: 54%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A year with (almost) uninterrupted optimism

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
During 2024, there was only a week or two when bulls didn't dominate investor surveys. Both the AAII and Investor's Intelligence surveys showed almost all weeks with significantly more bulls than bears. After similar years with persistent optimism, the S&P 500 tended to suffer poor returns.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
NYSE High/Low Ratio
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 40%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Equity Hedging Index
SPY Liquidity Premium
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
VIX
VIX Term Structure
ISE Call/Put Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
SKEW Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level
NYSE Available Cash

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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