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Daily Report : The bull market is long, strong, and showing some early cracks

Jason Goepfert
2024-12-11
The "four horsemen" of U.S. equity indices have enjoyed long, strong bull markets. For the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite, in particular, their rallies are nearing historic levels, which have tended to precede limited gains in the months ahead. There is little evidence that capital gains selling should be a factor in January, though seven straight sessions of negative breadth isn't a help.
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Headlines

The bull market is long, strong, and showing some early cracks: The "four horsemen" of U.S. equity indices have enjoyed long, strong bull markets. For the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite, in particular, their rallies are nearing historic levels, which have tended to precede limited gains in the months ahead. There is little evidence that capital gains selling should be a factor in January, though seven straight sessions of negative breadth isn't a help.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 30% Dumb Money Confidence: 64%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The bull market is long, strong, and showing some early cracks

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The "four horsemen" of U.S. equity indices have enjoyed long, strong bull markets. For the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite, in particular, their rallies are nearing historic levels, which have tended to precede limited gains in the months ahead. There is little evidence that capital gains selling should be a factor in January, though seven straight sessions of negative breadth isn't a help.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
OEX Open Interest Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 47%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
Equity Put/Call Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
VIX Term Structure
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Equity Hedging Index
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
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