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Daily Report : Divergence Between Sentiment, Capital and Data

by Sentimentrader
2025-12-09
Current market shows divergences: negative ERP contrasts with high NAAIM positions, soft data slumps while hard data's trend remains uncertain, and UMich confidence hits a three-year low. Short-term exuberance hints at volatility, but the market's next move hinges on hard data resilience.
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Headlines

Divergence Between Sentiment, Capital and Data: Current market shows divergences: negative ERP contrasts with high NAAIM positions, soft data slumps while hard data's trend remains uncertain, and UMich confidence hits a three-year low. Short-term exuberance hints at volatility, but the market's next move hinges on hard data resilience.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 40% Dumb Money Confidence: 68%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Divergence Between Sentiment, Capital and Data

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
Current market shows divergences: negative ERP contrasts with high NAAIM positions, soft data slumps while hard data's trend remains uncertain, and UMich confidence hits a three-year low. Short-term exuberance hints at volatility, but the market's next move hinges on hard data resilience.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Rydex Bearish Flow
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 37%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
Stock/Bond Ratio
VIX Term Structure
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level
NYSE Available Cash

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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