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Daily Report : Most indices are wildly above their exponential trends

Jason Goepfert
2024-12-04
The S&P 500 is far above its exponential tend since 1920. The Nasdaq is, too, and the Dow Industrials index is even more so. The only major index not far above its long-term trend is the small-cap Russell 2000. Value stocks could even be considered far below trend, and for the longest amount of time since 1944.
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Headlines

Most indices are wildly above their exponential trends: The S&P 500 is far above its exponential tend since 1920. The Nasdaq is, too, and the Dow Industrials index is even more so. The only major index not far above its long-term trend is the small-cap Russell 2000. Value stocks could even be considered far below trend, and for the longest amount of time since 1944.

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Research

Most indices are wildly above their exponential trends

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 is far above its exponential tend since 1920. The Nasdaq is, too, and the Dow Industrials index is even more so. The only major index not far above its long-term trend is the small-cap Russell 2000. Value stocks could even be considered far below trend, and for the longest amount of time since 1944.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 46%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Ratio
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Smart Money Confidence
ISE Call/Put Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Optimism
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NYSE Available Cash
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