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Daily Report : An In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Composite Washout Model - Part I

by Sentimentrader
2025-11-24
Introducing the TCTM Composite Washout Model: A new tool combining 9 components to identify panic selling & market bottoms. Backtests show strong 6-12 month returns when this "risk-off" model flips to favorable. See Part I of our deep dive.
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Headlines

An In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Composite Washout Model - Part I: Introducing the TCTM Composite Washout Model: A new tool combining 9 components to identify panic selling & market bottoms. Backtests show strong 6-12 month returns when this "risk-off" model flips to favorable. See Part I of our deep dive.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 59% Dumb Money Confidence: 46%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

An In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Composite Washout Model - Part I

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
Introducing the TCTM Composite Washout Model: A new tool combining 9 components to identify panic selling & market bottoms. Backtests show strong 6-12 month returns when this "risk-off" model flips to favorable. See Part I of our deep dive.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 16%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE High/Low Ratio
VIX
SPY Liquidity Premium
Rydex Sector Breadth
OEX Put/Call Ratio
VIX Term Structure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 25%
Bearish for Stocks
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
SKEW Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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