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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Nov 22 - Risk-off warning, year-end seasonals, energy divergence

Jason Goepfert
2024-11-22
This week, we saw that stocks are wobbling, with a new risk-off warning signal and a near-record evaporation in new highs. Bulls may be comforted a bit by the idea that stocks are entering what has been a very favorable seasonal window, especially for some sectors and factors. Energy stocks have diverged from crude prices. Why it may pay to look more closely at copper.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Nov 22 - Risk-off warning, year-end seasonals, energy divergence: This week, we saw that stocks are wobbling, with a new risk-off warning signal and a near-record evaporation in new highs. Bulls may be comforted a bit by the idea that stocks are entering what has been a very favorable seasonal window, especially for some sectors and factors. Energy stocks have diverged from crude prices. Why it may pay to look more closely at copper.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 31% Dumb Money Confidence: 66%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Nov 22 - Risk-off warning, year-end seasonals, energy divergence

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that stocks are wobbling, with a new risk-off warning signal and a near-record evaporation in new highs. Bulls may be comforted a bit by the idea that stocks are entering what has been a very favorable seasonal window, especially for some sectors and factors. Energy stocks have diverged from crude prices. Why it may pay to look more closely at copper.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 49%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
Risk Appetite Index
Major Index Combo
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
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Equity Hedging Index
Options Speculation Index
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NYSE Available Cash
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Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

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Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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