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Daily Report : Timidity of Optimism

by Sentimentrader
2025-11-20
The SPX has broken below its 50-day moving average for the first time after a long stretch above it, with Smart Money perking up as Dumb Money retreats and the short-term optimism index dropping to 30historically, such signals have led to strong stock market rallies over the following six months.
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Headlines

Timidity of Optimism: The SPX has broken below its 50-day moving average for the first time after a long stretch above it, with Smart Money perking up as Dumb Money retreats and the short-term optimism index dropping to 30historically, such signals have led to strong stock market rallies over the following six months.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 58% Dumb Money Confidence: 42%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Timidity of Optimism

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
The SPX has broken below its 50-day moving average for the first time after a long stretch above it, with Smart Money perking up as Dumb Money retreats and the short-term optimism index dropping to 30historically, such signals have led to strong stock market rallies over the following six months.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Medium-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 18%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
Rydex Sector Breadth
NYSE High/Low Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
VIX Term Structure
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
AAII Bull Ratio
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 25%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Open Interest Ratio
SKEW Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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