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Daily Report : A In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Risk Warning Model - Part II

by Sentimentrader
2025-11-17
This report (Part II) deconstructs the TCTM Risk-Warning Model. We analyze 6 of its 10 components, focusing on S&P 500 internals, Financial weakness, cyclical divergences, and sentiment. Learn how these indicators identify market fragility and precede weak returns.
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A In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Risk Warning Model - Part II: This report (Part II) deconstructs the TCTM Risk-Warning Model. We analyze 6 of its 10 components, focusing on S&P 500 internals, Financial weakness, cyclical divergences, and sentiment. Learn how these indicators identify market fragility and precede weak returns.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 53% Dumb Money Confidence: 48%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A In-Depth Look at the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Risk Warning Model - Part II

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
This report (Part II) deconstructs the TCTM Risk-Warning Model. We analyze 6 of its 10 components, focusing on S&P 500 internals, Financial weakness, cyclical divergences, and sentiment. Learn how these indicators identify market fragility and precede weak returns.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
AAII Bull Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 26%
Bearish for Stocks
Retail Money Market Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
SKEW Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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