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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Nov 15 - Bond seasonals, small cap participation, bitcoin buy

Jason Goepfert
2024-11-15
This week, we saw that most assets jumped after the election, so we look at the most and least correlated historical reactions. Traders are demanding less liquidity premium in tech stocks, and it may be helpful to look at the equal-weight version of the index this time of year. Small-cap stocks have hit new highs but relatively few are in uptrends. A seasonal timing system for bonds. A buy signal for bitcoin while gold struggles.
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TradingEdge Weekly for Nov 15 - Bond seasonals, small cap participation, bitcoin buy: This week, we saw that most assets jumped after the election, so we look at the most and least correlated historical reactions. Traders are demanding less liquidity premium in tech stocks, and it may be helpful to look at the equal-weight version of the index this time of year. Small-cap stocks have hit new highs but relatively few are in uptrends. A seasonal timing system for bonds. A buy signal for bitcoin while gold struggles.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 33% Dumb Money Confidence: 62%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Nov 15 - Bond seasonals, small cap participation, bitcoin buy

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that most assets jumped after the election, so we look at the most and least correlated historical reactions. Traders are demanding less liquidity premium in tech stocks, and it may be helpful to look at the equal-weight version of the index this time of year. Small-cap stocks have hit new highs but relatively few are in uptrends. A seasonal timing system for bonds. A buy signal for bitcoin while gold struggles.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Open Interest Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 40%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
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Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
VIX
Dumb Money Confidence
Stock/Bond Ratio
SKEW Index
AAII Bull Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
Major Index Combo
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
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Equity Hedging Index
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Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
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Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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