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Daily Report : A historic decline in gold from a multi-year high

Jason Goepfert
2024-11-14
For only the 11th time in history, gold declined more than 7% from a 3-year high. After similar signals, the precious metals rallied 80% of the time over the subsequent two weeks. Although a relief rally looks encouraging, traders should stay alert to the possibility that the rapid correction might usher in a more extended consolidation phase in an uptrend.
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Headlines

A historic decline in gold from a multi-year high : For only the 11th time in history, gold declined more than 7% from a 3-year high. After similar signals, the precious metals rallied 80% of the time over the subsequent two weeks. Although a relief rally looks encouraging, traders should stay alert to the possibility that the rapid correction might usher in a more extended consolidation phase in an uptrend.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 28% Dumb Money Confidence: 62%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A historic decline in gold from a multi-year high

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
For only the 11th time in history, gold declined more than 7% from a 3-year high. After similar signals, the precious metals rallied 80% of the time over the subsequent two weeks. Although a relief rally looks encouraging, traders should stay alert to the possibility that the rapid correction might usher in a more extended consolidation phase in an uptrend.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 51%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
Stock/Bond Ratio
SKEW Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
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Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
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AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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