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Daily Report : A Deep-Dive Into the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Risk-Warning Model - Part I

by Sentimentrader
2025-11-12
Explore the new TCTM Risk-Warning Model, a weight-of-the-evidence tool using 10 algorithms to spot market fragility. This report (Part I) deconstructs the logic and poor historical returns of the first four components, like the A-D Line Divergence.
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Headlines

A Deep-Dive Into the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Risk-Warning Model - Part I: Explore the new TCTM Risk-Warning Model, a weight-of-the-evidence tool using 10 algorithms to spot market fragility. This report (Part I) deconstructs the logic and poor historical returns of the first four components, like the A-D Line Divergence.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 49% Dumb Money Confidence: 66%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A Deep-Dive Into the Sentimentrader's New TCTM Risk-Warning Model - Part I

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
Explore the new TCTM Risk-Warning Model, a weight-of-the-evidence tool using 10 algorithms to spot market fragility. This report (Part I) deconstructs the logic and poor historical returns of the first four components, like the A-D Line Divergence.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 35%
Bearish for Stocks
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
OEX Open Interest Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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