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Daily Report : A look at post-election sector and factor performance - Part III

Jason Goepfert
2024-11-07
In Part I, we examined performance for specific sectors and factors during the first three months after a U.S. Presidential election. In Part II, we extended the test to six months after an election. We posit a simple strategy in Part III using information from Parts I and II.
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Headlines

A look at post-election sector and factor performance - Part III: In Part I, we examined performance for specific sectors and factors during the first three months after a U.S. Presidential election. In Part II, we extended the test to six months after an election. We posit a simple strategy in Part III using information from Parts I and II.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 34% Dumb Money Confidence: 66%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A look at post-election sector and factor performance - Part III

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
In Part I, we examined performance for specific sectors and factors during the first three months after a U.S. Presidential election. In Part II, we extended the test to six months after an election. We posit a simple strategy in Part III using information from Parts I and II.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 42%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
Dumb Money Confidence
Stock/Bond Ratio
SKEW Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
Options Speculation Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NAAIM Exposure Index
Major Index Combo
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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