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Daily Report : When technological momentum coincides with weakening crude oil prices

by Sentimentrader
2025-10-30
For only the 9th time since 1995, the S&P 500 hovered near the upper end of its 3-year range, while crude oil and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields neared the lower end of their 1-year ranges. Similar precedents delivered an 88% win rate for the S&P 500 over 6-12 months, with Tech and Communication sectors leading the rally.
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Headlines

When technological momentum coincides with weakening crude oil prices: For only the 9th time since 1995, the S&P 500 hovered near the upper end of its 3-year range, while crude oil and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields neared the lower end of their 1-year ranges. Similar precedents delivered an 88% win rate for the S&P 500 over 6-12 months, with Tech and Communication sectors leading the rally.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 49% Dumb Money Confidence: 62%

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Research

When technological momentum coincides with weakening crude oil prices

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
For only the 9th time since 1995, the S&P 500 hovered near the upper end of its 3-year range, while crude oil and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields neared the lower end of their 1-year ranges. Similar precedents delivered an 88% win rate for the S&P 500 over 6-12 months, with Tech and Communication sectors leading the rally.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 37%
Bearish for Stocks
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
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Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
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