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Daily Report : An unprecedented rise in the 10-year Treasury yield

Jason Goepfert
2024-10-30
The 10-year Treasury bond yield has surged by more than 65 basis points in 30 days, marking one of the most significant increases in history. Similar spikes near the start of Federal Reserve easing cycles have historically been rare, often resulting in a drop in the benchmark yield and a rally in equities.
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Headlines

An unprecedented rise in the 10-year Treasury yield: The 10-year Treasury bond yield has surged by more than 65 basis points in 30 days, marking one of the most significant increases in history. Similar spikes near the start of Federal Reserve easing cycles have historically been rare, often resulting in a drop in the benchmark yield and a rally in equities.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 42% Dumb Money Confidence: 67%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

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Agriculture

Research

An unprecedented rise in the 10-year Treasury yield

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
The 10-year Treasury bond yield has surged by more than 65 basis points in 30 days, marking one of the most significant increases in history. Similar spikes near the start of Federal Reserve easing cycles have historically been rare, often resulting in a drop in the benchmark yield and a rally in equities.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Open Interest Ratio
VIX Term Structure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 33%
Bearish for Stocks
% Showing Excess Optimism
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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