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Daily Report : A Major Divergence Emerges: Strong Stocks vs. Weak Bonds and Crude Oil

by Sentimentrader
2025-10-21
A major divergence: Stocks are near 3-year highs while oil & bond yields are near 1-year lows. Who wins? Historically, stocks do. This setup has preceded a +19.7% median 1-yr return for the S&P 500.
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Headlines

A Major Divergence Emerges: Strong Stocks vs. Weak Bonds and Crude Oil: A major divergence: Stocks are near 3-year highs while oil & bond yields are near 1-year lows. Who wins? Historically, stocks do. This setup has preceded a +19.7% median 1-yr return for the S&P 500.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 58% Dumb Money Confidence: 63%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A Major Divergence Emerges: Strong Stocks vs. Weak Bonds and Crude Oil

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
A major divergence: Stocks are near 3-year highs while oil & bond yields are near 1-year lows. Who wins? Historically, stocks do. This setup has preceded a +19.7% median 1-yr return for the S&P 500.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
SPY Liquidity Premium
Risk Appetite Index
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 42%
Bearish for Stocks
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
NYSE High/Low Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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