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Daily Report : Several market breadth indicators with a flawless track record just triggered a buy signal

Jason Goepfert
2024-10-15
For the 21st time since 1954, more than 30% of stocks in the S&P 500 Financials and Industrials sectors surged to 52-week highs. Comparable signals saw the S&P 500 rise 100% of the time over the ensuing year. Even more remarkable, over 90% of Financial sector stocks closed within 5% of a 252-day high, a scenario with a perfect outlook for the sector and the broad market a year later.
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Headlines

Several market breadth indicators with a flawless track record just triggered a buy signal: For the 21st time since 1954, more than 30% of stocks in the S&P 500 Financials and Industrials sectors surged to 52-week highs. Comparable signals saw the S&P 500 rise 100% of the time over the ensuing year. Even more remarkable, over 90% of Financial sector stocks closed within 5% of a 252-day high, a scenario with a perfect outlook for the sector and the broad market a year later.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 43% Dumb Money Confidence: 79%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Several market breadth indicators with a flawless track record just triggered a buy signal

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
For the 21st time since 1954, more than 30% of stocks in the S&P 500 Financials and Industrials sectors surged to 52-week highs. Comparable signals saw the S&P 500 rise 100% of the time over the ensuing year. Even more remarkable, over 90% of Financial sector stocks closed within 5% of a 252-day high, a scenario with a perfect outlook for the sector and the broad market a year later.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Long-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Open Interest Ratio
VIX Term Structure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 47%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Equity Put/Call Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Stock/Bond Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Equity Hedging Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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