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Daily Report : The VIX is higher than it should be

Jason Goepfert
2024-10-14
The VIX is considered to be the standard measure of fear in the stock market, and it does a pretty good job of it. But it's currently elevated compared to where it should be, given recent volatility. It's also exceptionally high, given that bond credit spreads are showing no concern. Similar bouts of "irrational" fear tended to lead to higher stock prices.
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The VIX is higher than it should be: The VIX is considered to be the standard measure of fear in the stock market, and it does a pretty good job of it. But it's currently elevated compared to where it should be, given recent volatility. It's also exceptionally high, given that bond credit spreads are showing no concern. Similar bouts of "irrational" fear tended to lead to higher stock prices.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 44% Dumb Money Confidence: 77%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

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Agriculture

Research

The VIX is higher than it should be

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The VIX is considered to be the standard measure of fear in the stock market, and it does a pretty good job of it. But it's currently elevated compared to where it should be, given recent volatility. It's also exceptionally high, given that bond credit spreads are showing no concern. Similar bouts of "irrational" fear tended to lead to higher stock prices.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Open Interest Ratio
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 44%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Equity Hedging Index
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Stock/Bond Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level
NYSE Available Cash

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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