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Daily Report : A Reversal From a New High and a Surging VIX Suggests Market Headwinds

by Sentimentrader
2025-10-13
The S&P 500's sharp reversal from a new high has triggered a signal with a challenging history. Data shows a pattern of a deceptive bounce, a high risk of a >10% drawdown, and a rotation to defensive sectors.
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Headlines

A Reversal From a New High and a Surging VIX Suggests Market Headwinds: The S&P 500's sharp reversal from a new high has triggered a signal with a challenging history. Data shows a pattern of a deceptive bounce, a high risk of a >10% drawdown, and a rotation to defensive sectors.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 49% Dumb Money Confidence: 66%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A Reversal From a New High and a Surging VIX Suggests Market Headwinds

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500's sharp reversal from a new high has triggered a signal with a challenging history. Data shows a pattern of a deceptive bounce, a high risk of a >10% drawdown, and a rotation to defensive sectors.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 21%
Bullish for Stocks
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
VIX
Rydex Bearish Flow
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
VIX Term Structure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
SKEW Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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