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Daily Report : The Dow Industrials' historic multi-timeframe momentum

Jason Goepfert
2024-10-09
The Dow Industrials have put in one of the all-time great performances across time frames. The index has advanced more than 60% of the time across daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly time frames, one of the few times in 124 years it has done so. Extreme positive momentum has generated more gains in the months ahead, but long-term returns were questionable.
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Headlines

The Dow Industrials' historic multi-timeframe momentum: The Dow Industrials have put in one of the all-time great performances across time frames. The index has advanced more than 60% of the time across daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly time frames, one of the few times in 124 years it has done so. Extreme positive momentum has generated more gains in the months ahead, but long-term returns were questionable.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 46% Dumb Money Confidence: 70%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The Dow Industrials' historic multi-timeframe momentum

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The Dow Industrials have put in one of the all-time great performances across time frames. The index has advanced more than 60% of the time across daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly time frames, one of the few times in 124 years it has done so. Extreme positive momentum has generated more gains in the months ahead, but long-term returns were questionable.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
VIX
VIX Term Structure
OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 42%
Bearish for Stocks
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
NYSE High/Low Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
SKEW Index
ISE Call/Put Ratio
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.