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Daily Report : Market Sentiment Shifts as a Historically Positive Pattern Emerges

by Sentimentrader
2025-10-02
The confidence rebound' model based on the sentiment cycle triggered a historically positive market signal on September 26. This article delves into historical data following this signal, the performance of the S&P 500, and sector rotation patterns, exploring its potential implications for future market prospects.
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Headlines

Market Sentiment Shifts as a Historically Positive Pattern Emerges: The confidence rebound' model based on the sentiment cycle triggered a historically positive market signal on September 26. This article delves into historical data following this signal, the performance of the S&P 500, and sector rotation patterns, exploring its potential implications for future market prospects.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 32% Dumb Money Confidence: 72%

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Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

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Agriculture

Research

Market Sentiment Shifts as a Historically Positive Pattern Emerges

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
The confidence rebound' model based on the sentiment cycle triggered a historically positive market signal on September 26. This article delves into historical data following this signal, the performance of the S&P 500, and sector rotation patterns, exploring its potential implications for future market prospects.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 5%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 47%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Smart Money Confidence
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Pessimism
% Showing Excess Optimism
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
NYSE High/Low Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
Equity Put/Call Ratio
AAII Allocation - Stocks
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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