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Daily Report : The first Fed rate cut

Jason Goepfert
2024-09-17
The Fed is on track to cut rates for the first time after a long hiking cycle. Over the past 50 years, the first cut preceded mixed returns for stocks in general, with relatively better returns for defensive stocks like staples, utilities, and value. The dollar tended to struggle at first.
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Headlines

The first Fed rate cut: The Fed is on track to cut rates for the first time after a long hiking cycle. Over the past 50 years, the first cut preceded mixed returns for stocks in general, with relatively better returns for defensive stocks like staples, utilities, and value. The dollar tended to struggle at first.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 56% Dumb Money Confidence: 71%

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Research

The first Fed rate cut

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The Fed is on track to cut rates for the first time after a long hiking cycle. Over the past 50 years, the first cut preceded mixed returns for stocks in general, with relatively better returns for defensive stocks like staples, utilities, and value. The dollar tended to struggle at first.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 14%
Bullish for Stocks
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OEX Open Interest Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
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CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 26%
Bearish for Stocks
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
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