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Daily Report : A sentiment signal with a perfect record just triggered

Jason Goepfert
2025-09-10
For only the 9th time since 1980, the Advisor and Investor Model cycled from below 5% to above 75%, with the S&P 500 hovering near a multi-year high. Comparable signals led to an S&P 500 rally over the subsequent six months every time.
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Headlines

Sentimentrader Intraday minutes:

- Industry action flashes a favorable sign

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A sentiment signal with a perfect record just triggered: For only the 9th time since 1980, the Advisor and Investor Model cycled from below 5% to above 75%, with the S&P 500 hovering near a multi-year high. Comparable signals led to an S&P 500 rally over the subsequent six months every time.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 44% Dumb Money Confidence: 63%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A sentiment signal with a perfect record just triggered

By by Sentimentrader

BOTTOM LINE
For only the 9th time since 1980, the Advisor and Investor Model cycled from below 5% to above 75%, with the S&P 500 hovering near a multi-year high. Comparable signals led to an S&P 500 rally over the subsequent six months every time.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Rydex Bearish Flow
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 35%
Bearish for Stocks
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
NYSE Arms Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Rydex Sector Breadth
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
VIX Term Structure
NYSE High/Low Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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