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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Sep 6 - Defensive leaders, global uptrends, "inevitable" bond rally

Jason Goepfert
2024-09-06
This week, we saw that defensive sectors have been taking leadership positions, even as every major developed market is showing exceptionally strong performance. Factor dispersion is high, with the correlation between value and growth at a near-record low. Platinum and tech stocks are facing tough seasonal windows. It may not be wise to assume a bond rally is inevitable.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Sep 6 - Defensive leaders, global uptrends, "inevitable" bond rally: This week, we saw that defensive sectors have been taking leadership positions, even as every major developed market is showing exceptionally strong performance. Factor dispersion is high, with the correlation between value and growth at a near-record low. Platinum and tech stocks are facing tough seasonal windows. It may not be wise to assume a bond rally is inevitable.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 52% Dumb Money Confidence: 63%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Sep 6 - Defensive leaders, global uptrends, "inevitable" bond rally

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that defensive sectors have been taking leadership positions, even as every major developed market is showing exceptionally strong performance. Factor dispersion is high, with the correlation between value and growth at a near-record low. Platinum and tech stocks are facing tough seasonal windows. It may not be wise to assume a bond rally is inevitable.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 28%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Stock/Bond Ratio
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Equity Put/Call Ratio
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Rydex Sector Breadth
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 28%
Bearish for Stocks
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
SKEW Index
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Bull Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity Hedging Index
Mutual Fund Cash Level
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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