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Daily Report : A curve ball from the yield curve

Jason Goepfert
2025-09-02
The yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries has steepened to the widest point in years following an inversion. The last two times this happened, stocks suffered the worst bear markets in generations. But other signals were benign, and small-cap stocks soared after all but one of them.
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A curve ball from the yield curve: The yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries has steepened to the widest point in years following an inversion. The last two times this happened, stocks suffered the worst bear markets in generations. But other signals were benign, and small-cap stocks soared after all but one of them.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 40% Dumb Money Confidence: 70%

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Research

A curve ball from the yield curve

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The yield curve between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries has steepened to the widest point in years following an inversion. The last two times this happened, stocks suffered the worst bear markets in generations. But other signals were benign, and small-cap stocks soared after all but one of them.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 33%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
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% Showing Excess Optimism
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Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
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Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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