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Daily Report : Renewed strength in cyclical sector participation

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-25
Most stocks in cyclical sectors have reclaimed their 200-day moving averages. This kind of broad participation among economically sensitive groups has historically carried substantial implications for the overall market. In fact, similar instances have led to an S&P 500 rally 100% of the time over the following four months.
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Headlines

Renewed strength in cyclical sector participation: Most stocks in cyclical sectors have reclaimed their 200-day moving averages. This kind of broad participation among economically sensitive groups has historically carried substantial implications for the overall market. In fact, similar instances have led to an S&P 500 rally 100% of the time over the following four months.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 41% Dumb Money Confidence: 69%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Renewed strength in cyclical sector participation

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
Most stocks in cyclical sectors have reclaimed their 200-day moving averages. This kind of broad participation among economically sensitive groups has historically carried substantial implications for the overall market. In fact, similar instances have led to an S&P 500 rally 100% of the time over the following four months.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 4%
Bullish for Stocks
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 40%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Pessimism
% Showing Excess Optimism
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
VIX
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Equity Put/Call Ratio
VIX Term Structure
Options Speculation Index
SKEW Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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