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Daily Report : A bullish message from oil and gold

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-21
Crude oil and gold are separate commodities with entirely different supply and demand factors. However, they are also two of the most widely followed commodities. The current low level of oil to gold prices should be a positive for stock returns in the year ahead.
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A bullish message from oil and gold: Crude oil and gold are separate commodities with entirely different supply and demand factors. However, they are also two of the most widely followed commodities. The current low level of oil to gold prices should be a positive for stock returns in the year ahead.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 42% Dumb Money Confidence: 67%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A bullish message from oil and gold

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
Crude oil and gold are separate commodities with entirely different supply and demand factors. However, they are also two of the most widely followed commodities. The current low level of oil to gold prices should be a positive for stock returns in the year ahead.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
AAII Bull Ratio
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
SKEW Index
VIX Term Structure
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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