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Daily Report : Small options traders show this isn't a 2021 repeat

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-20
Retail traders usually get the blame for the most speculative activity, and it's not necessarily a fair argument. One of the most reliable indicators of their behavior, opening options purchases, shows that they are relatively subdued at the moment, particularly compared to the 2021 mania.
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Headlines

Small options traders show this isn't a 2021 repeat: Retail traders usually get the blame for the most speculative activity, and it's not necessarily a fair argument. One of the most reliable indicators of their behavior, opening options purchases, shows that they are relatively subdued at the moment, particularly compared to the 2021 mania.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 41% Dumb Money Confidence: 68%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Small options traders show this isn't a 2021 repeat

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Retail traders usually get the blame for the most speculative activity, and it's not necessarily a fair argument. One of the most reliable indicators of their behavior, opening options purchases, shows that they are relatively subdued at the moment, particularly compared to the 2021 mania.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
AAII Bull Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 35%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
VIX Term Structure
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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