Products
SentimenTrader Trading Tools
‍
Backtest Engine
My Trading Toolkit
Correlation Analysis
Seasonality
Market Prediction
Indicators & Data API
‍
Proprietary Indicators & Charts
Market Data API
Strategies & Scanner
‍
50+ Trading Strategies
Smart Stock Scanner
Smart Option Scanner
Research Reports
‍
Research Solutions
Reports Library
Free Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Education
Sentiment Indicators
Technical Indicators
Pricing
Company
About
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Daily Report : Small business optimism is rebounding

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-13
Small business owners are feeling better, and that's a good thing. Ironically, it has been a better sign for the S&P 500 than for the Russell 2000. Over the following three months, the S&P rarely suffered a loss. When it did, it was an ill omen.
View/Print a PDF version of this Report

Headlines

Small business optimism is rebounding: Small business owners are feeling better, and that's a good thing. Ironically, it has been a better sign for the S&P 500 than for the Russell 2000. Over the following three months, the S&P rarely suffered a loss. When it did, it was an ill omen.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 45% Dumb Money Confidence: 66%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Small business optimism is rebounding

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Small business owners are feeling better, and that's a good thing. Ironically, it has been a better sign for the S&P 500 than for the Russell 2000. Over the following three months, the S&P rarely suffered a loss. When it did, it was an ill omen.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Medium-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 44%
Bearish for Stocks
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
VIX
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
NYSE High/Low Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
VIX Term Structure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

Click here to view the Phase Table on the site.

Ranks

Click here to view on the site (Ranks tab on the Dashboard).

Sentiment Around The World

Click here to view on the site.

Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
PRODUCTS
SentimenTrader
Trading Tools
Indicators & Data API
‍
Strategies & Scanner
‍
Research Reports
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Education
Sentiment Indicators
‍
Technical Indicators
‍
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
FAQ
‍
Announcements
‍
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
CONTACT
‍
General Inquiries
‍
Media Inquiries
‍
Financial Professionals Inquiries
‍
© 2026 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.