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Daily Report : Weekly recap - Macro deterioration, topping pattern (?), weak PMI

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-08
This week, we saw that macro conditions have deteriorated but remain in barely healthy territory. The most recent breakout in stocks got hit with consistent selling pressure, but that's an unreliable topping pattern. PMI activity is weak, but again, that has been a poor excuse to sell. A couple of bitcoin systems show mostly healthy activity.
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Weekly recap - Macro deterioration, topping pattern (?), weak PMI: This week, we saw that macro conditions have deteriorated but remain in barely healthy territory. The most recent breakout in stocks got hit with consistent selling pressure, but that's an unreliable topping pattern. PMI activity is weak, but again, that has been a poor excuse to sell. A couple of bitcoin systems show mostly healthy activity.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 46% Dumb Money Confidence: 64%

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Research

Weekly recap - Macro deterioration, topping pattern (?), weak PMI

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that macro conditions have deteriorated but remain in barely healthy territory. The most recent breakout in stocks got hit with consistent selling pressure, but that's an unreliable topping pattern. PMI activity is weak, but again, that has been a poor excuse to sell. A couple of bitcoin systems show mostly healthy activity.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 5%
Bullish for Stocks
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 33%
Bearish for Stocks
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX Term Structure
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% Showing Excess Pessimism
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