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Daily Report : A simple 3-pronged system for bitcoin

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-06
A simple sytem for bitcoin that incorporates price, sentiment, and breadth has flipped to an unhealthy level. When healthy, this Triple 40 system has led to outsized gains in the currency, with half the drawdown of buy-and-hold.
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Headlines

A simple 3-pronged system for bitcoin: A simple sytem for bitcoin that incorporates price, sentiment, and breadth has flipped to an unhealthy level. When healthy, this Triple 40 system has led to outsized gains in the currency, with half the drawdown of buy-and-hold.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 41% Dumb Money Confidence: 64%

Risk Levels

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Research

A simple 3-pronged system for bitcoin

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
A simple sytem for bitcoin that incorporates price, sentiment, and breadth has flipped to an unhealthy level. When healthy, this Triple 40 system has led to outsized gains in the currency, with half the drawdown of buy-and-hold.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 23%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NAAIM Exposure Index
Mutual Fund Cash Level
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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