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Daily Report : Macro conditions are on the edge of ugliness

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-04
The Macro Index Model has deteriorated in recent months. As we enter August, the model is just above the threshold that would indicate an imminent recession, and any further model deterioration would be a warning for investors to expect lower returns in the months following.
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Headlines

Macro conditions are on the edge of ugliness: The Macro Index Model has deteriorated in recent months. As we enter August, the model is just above the threshold that would indicate an imminent recession, and any further model deterioration would be a warning for investors to expect lower returns in the months following.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 38% Dumb Money Confidence: 63%

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Research

Macro conditions are on the edge of ugliness

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The Macro Index Model has deteriorated in recent months. As we enter August, the model is just above the threshold that would indicate an imminent recession, and any further model deterioration would be a warning for investors to expect lower returns in the months following.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 25%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Rydex Bearish Flow
S&P 500 Down Pressure
VIX
VIX Term Structure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 26%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Options Speculation Index
Risk Appetite Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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