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Daily Report : Weekly recap - Volatility compression, new high cluster, commodity trifecta

Jason Goepfert
2025-08-01
This week, we saw that it has not been a positive sign to see compressed volatility during this time of year, especially when indexes have set so many record highs. On the plus side, almost all sectors are now above their 200-day moving averages. Price trends, seasonality, and cycles are positive for commodities.
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Headlines

Sentimentrader Intraday minutes:

- Using a put butterfly spread to hedge a stock portfolio (or play the short side)

- End of calm days

- The seasonal opportunity in TLT remains in play

View the Sentimentrader Intraday Minutes List

Weekly recap - Volatility compression, new high cluster, commodity trifecta: This week, we saw that it has not been a positive sign to see compressed volatility during this time of year, especially when indexes have set so many record highs. On the plus side, almost all sectors are now above their 200-day moving averages. Price trends, seasonality, and cycles are positive for commodities.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 32% Dumb Money Confidence: 63%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Weekly recap - Volatility compression, new high cluster, commodity trifecta

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that it has not been a positive sign to see compressed volatility during this time of year, especially when indexes have set so many record highs. On the plus side, almost all sectors are now above their 200-day moving averages. Price trends, seasonality, and cycles are positive for commodities.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
Equity Put/Call Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 37%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
SKEW Index
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
OEX Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
Risk Appetite Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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