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Daily Report : A "perfect" sector trend signal just triggered

Jason Goepfert
2025-07-31
The number of S&P 500 sectors trading above their 200-day average has cycled from 0 to 10. Comparable trend shifts saw the S&P 500 rally 100% of the time over the next six months, with muted drawdowns.
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A "perfect" sector trend signal just triggered: The number of S&P 500 sectors trading above their 200-day average has cycled from 0 to 10. Comparable trend shifts saw the S&P 500 rally 100% of the time over the next six months, with muted drawdowns.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 31% Dumb Money Confidence: 68%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A "perfect" sector trend signal just triggered

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
The number of S&P 500 sectors trading above their 200-day average has cycled from 0 to 10. Comparable trend shifts saw the S&P 500 rally 100% of the time over the next six months, with muted drawdowns.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Long-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 39%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
Risk Appetite Index
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Retail Money Market Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level
AAII Allocation - Stocks

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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