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Daily Report : The best July since...ever

Jason Goepfert
2025-07-30
The S&P 500 scored 10 multi-year highs in July, exceeding all but two years since 1928. The Nasdaq Composite was even more impressive, with an all-time high of 14 record closes during July. Other times those indices enjoyed July "super months," August tended to be a struggle.
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Sentimentrader Intraday minutes:

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The best July since...ever: The S&P 500 scored 10 multi-year highs in July, exceeding all but two years since 1928. The Nasdaq Composite was even more impressive, with an all-time high of 14 record closes during July. Other times those indices enjoyed July "super months," August tended to be a struggle.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 31% Dumb Money Confidence: 69%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

The best July since...ever

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 scored 10 multi-year highs in July, exceeding all but two years since 1928. The Nasdaq Composite was even more impressive, with an all-time high of 14 record closes during July. Other times those indices enjoyed July "super months," August tended to be a struggle.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
Rydex Bearish Flow
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 40%
Bearish for Stocks
VIX Term Structure
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Risk Appetite Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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