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Daily Report : Calendar compression in fear

Jason Goepfert
2025-07-28
The ViX "fear gauge" hasn't been moving much. Its Bollinger Bands are historically compressed, which is especially unusual this time of year. A compressed VIX during late July or early August showed a strong tendency to see volatility increase over the following one to three months. This usually meant a headwind for stocks, including consumer discretionary.
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Calendar compression in fear: The ViX "fear gauge" hasn't been moving much. Its Bollinger Bands are historically compressed, which is especially unusual this time of year. A compressed VIX during late July or early August showed a strong tendency to see volatility increase over the following one to three months. This usually meant a headwind for stocks, including consumer discretionary.

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Calendar compression in fear

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The ViX "fear gauge" hasn't been moving much. Its Bollinger Bands are historically compressed, which is especially unusual this time of year. A compressed VIX during late July or early August showed a strong tendency to see volatility increase over the following one to three months. This usually meant a headwind for stocks, including consumer discretionary.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
VIX -- Up, Medium-Term

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Bullish for Stocks
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