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Daily Report : No stress in bond land

Jason Goepfert
2025-07-23
Bond traders seem sanguine about companies' fundamental prospects. The CDX Index of credit default protection remains below its 50-day moving average, which has been a strong tailwind for the stock market. It has not been a warning sign of extended trends even when the Index has been below its average for 50 sessions.
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Headlines

No stress in bond land: Bond traders seem sanguine about companies' fundamental prospects. The CDX Index of credit default protection remains below its 50-day moving average, which has been a strong tailwind for the stock market. It has not been a warning sign of extended trends even when the Index has been below its average for 50 sessions.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 32% Dumb Money Confidence: 76%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

No stress in bond land

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Bond traders seem sanguine about companies' fundamental prospects. The CDX Index of credit default protection remains below its 50-day moving average, which has been a strong tailwind for the stock market. It has not been a warning sign of extended trends even when the Index has been below its average for 50 sessions.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Medium-Term

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 5%
Bullish for Stocks
Rydex Bearish Flow
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 49%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
ISE Call/Put Ratio
VIX Term Structure
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Pessimism
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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