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Daily Report : Equal weight does not mean equal performance

Jason Goepfert
2025-07-16
With the most recent breakout to record highs in the S&P 500, the average stock has been lagging. The equal-weighted version of the S&P index hasn't made a new high for more than 150 days, and no more than 10% of stocks have reached new highs.
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Headlines

Equal weight does not mean equal performance: With the most recent breakout to record highs in the S&P 500, the average stock has been lagging. The equal-weighted version of the S&P index hasn't made a new high for more than 150 days, and no more than 10% of stocks have reached new highs.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 31% Dumb Money Confidence: 74%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Equal weight does not mean equal performance

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
With the most recent breakout to record highs in the S&P 500, the average stock has been lagging. The equal-weighted version of the S&P index hasn't made a new high for more than 150 days, and no more than 10% of stocks have reached new highs.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 47%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE Arms Index
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Smart Money Confidence
ISE Call/Put Ratio
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Retail Money Market Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Risk Appetite Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level
NYSE Available Cash

Phase Table

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Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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