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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Jul 11 - Cyclical recoveries, trend persistence, metal warnings

Jason Goepfert
2025-07-11
This week, we saw that more cyclical groups are sporting positive one-year returns as tech stocks recover from bear markets. The S&P 500 skated above its upper volatility band for over a week amid a major change in trend. Broad gains have pushed stocks toward a so-called "sell" signal, which hasn't been very accurate. Several groups are heading into consistent seasonal zones, with some indicators flashing warnings for metals.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Jul 11 - Cyclical recoveries, trend persistence, metal warnings: This week, we saw that more cyclical groups are sporting positive one-year returns as tech stocks recover from bear markets. The S&P 500 skated above its upper volatility band for over a week amid a major change in trend. Broad gains have pushed stocks toward a so-called "sell" signal, which hasn't been very accurate. Several groups are heading into consistent seasonal zones, with some indicators flashing warnings for metals.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 30% Dumb Money Confidence: 77%

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Stocks Medium-Term

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Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Jul 11 - Cyclical recoveries, trend persistence, metal warnings

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that more cyclical groups are sporting positive one-year returns as tech stocks recover from bear markets. The S&P 500 skated above its upper volatility band for over a week amid a major change in trend. Broad gains have pushed stocks toward a so-called "sell" signal, which hasn't been very accurate. Several groups are heading into consistent seasonal zones, with some indicators flashing warnings for metals.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Bullish for Stocks
OEX Put/Call Ratio
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% Showing Optimism: 47%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Call/Put Ratio
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% Showing Excess Optimism
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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