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Daily Report : Pushing beyond a stretched Band

Jason Goepfert
2025-07-07
Traders have pushed the S&P 500 above its upper Bollinger Band for seven out of the past eight sessions, while the index has hit a record high. Such momentum tended to persist, while returns were below average. However, the display of high risk appetite tended to benefit small stocks, which outperformed over most time frames.
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Headlines

Pushing beyond a stretched Band: Traders have pushed the S&P 500 above its upper Bollinger Band for seven out of the past eight sessions, while the index has hit a record high. Such momentum tended to persist, while returns were below average. However, the display of high risk appetite tended to benefit small stocks, which outperformed over most time frames.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 30% Dumb Money Confidence: 79%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

Pushing beyond a stretched Band

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Traders have pushed the S&P 500 above its upper Bollinger Band for seven out of the past eight sessions, while the index has hit a record high. Such momentum tended to persist, while returns were below average. However, the display of high risk appetite tended to benefit small stocks, which outperformed over most time frames.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 4%
Bullish for Stocks
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 53%
Bearish for Stocks
% Showing Excess Pessimism
% Showing Excess Optimism
Rydex Sector Breadth
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Equity Hedging Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
S&P 500 Down Pressure
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
Options Speculation Index
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
SKEW Index
Equity Put/Call Ratio
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
Dumb Money Confidence
OEX Put/Call Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Retail Money Market Ratio
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level
NYSE Available Cash

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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