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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 20 - Stocks vs bonds, risk-on behavior, AI stocks

Jason Goepfert
2025-06-20
This week, we saw more signs of risk-on behavior, which tends to be a good long-term sign. One concern is the stretched relationship between stocks and bonds as a competing asset. AI stocks are showing relative strength, and breadth is improving in the energy sector. Corn is facing a consistent seasonal headwind.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 20 - Stocks vs bonds, risk-on behavior, AI stocks: This week, we saw more signs of risk-on behavior, which tends to be a good long-term sign. One concern is the stretched relationship between stocks and bonds as a competing asset. AI stocks are showing relative strength, and breadth is improving in the energy sector. Corn is facing a consistent seasonal headwind.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 47% Dumb Money Confidence: 62%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 20 - Stocks vs bonds, risk-on behavior, AI stocks

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw more signs of risk-on behavior, which tends to be a good long-term sign. One concern is the stretched relationship between stocks and bonds as a competing asset. AI stocks are showing relative strength, and breadth is improving in the energy sector. Corn is facing a consistent seasonal headwind.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 9%
Bullish for Stocks
VIX
Equity Put/Call Ratio
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 26%
Bearish for Stocks
Rydex Sector Breadth
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
NAAIM Exposure Index
SKEW Index
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
Retail Money Market Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sentiment Around The World

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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