Products
SentimenTrader Trading Tools
‍
Backtest Engine
My Trading Toolkit
Correlation Analysis
Seasonality
Market Prediction
Indicators & Data API
‍
Proprietary Indicators & Charts
Market Data API
Strategies & Scanner
‍
50+ Trading Strategies
Smart Stock Scanner
Smart Option Scanner
Research Reports
‍
Research Solutions
Reports Library
Free Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Education
Sentiment Indicators
Technical Indicators
Pricing
Company
About
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Daily Report : A dwindling premium for stocks

Jason Goepfert
2025-06-16
For the first time in a couple of months, the argument for stocks over bonds is becoming less clear. The Equity Risk Premium and Stock/Bond Ratio have reached extreme thresholds, which have tended to precede relatively poor returns for stocks, except for defensive sectors. It was less of a factor for bonds, which saw mixed returns.
View/Print a PDF version of this Report

Headlines

A dwindling premium for stocks: For the first time in a couple of months, the argument for stocks over bonds is becoming less clear. The Equity Risk Premium and Stock/Bond Ratio have reached extreme thresholds, which have tended to precede relatively poor returns for stocks, except for defensive sectors. It was less of a factor for bonds, which saw mixed returns.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 41% Dumb Money Confidence: 69%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A dwindling premium for stocks

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
For the first time in a couple of months, the argument for stocks over bonds is becoming less clear. The Equity Risk Premium and Stock/Bond Ratio have reached extreme thresholds, which have tended to precede relatively poor returns for stocks, except for defensive sectors. It was less of a factor for bonds, which saw mixed returns.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview

Click here to view the Sentiment Risk On / Risk Off Overview on the site.

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 14%
Bullish for Stocks
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
VIX
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
NYSE Arms Index
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Sector Breadth
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
Dumb Money Confidence
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
SKEW Index
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

Phase Table

Click here to view the Phase Table on the site.

Ranks

Click here to view on the site (Ranks tab on the Dashboard).

Sentiment Around The World

Click here to view on the site.

Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
PRODUCTS
SentimenTrader
Trading Tools
Indicators & Data API
‍
Strategies & Scanner
‍
Research Reports
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Education
Sentiment Indicators
‍
Technical Indicators
‍
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
FAQ
‍
Announcements
‍
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
CONTACT
‍
General Inquiries
‍
Media Inquiries
‍
Financial Professionals Inquiries
‍
© 2026 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.