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Daily Report : TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 13 - Big move in small stocks, real yield tailwind, dollar doldrums

Jason Goepfert
2025-06-13
This week, we saw that some sectors are showing breakout performances, including small stocks, Korean shares, and the industrial sector. Three major indices have already recovered most of their drawdowns, with help from a positive real yield on bonds. A few sectors are heading into seasonal soft spots. Using the silver/gold ratio to trade silver. The buck has plunged, which isn't necessarily good for gold.
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Headlines

TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 13 - Big move in small stocks, real yield tailwind, dollar doldrums: This week, we saw that some sectors are showing breakout performances, including small stocks, Korean shares, and the industrial sector. Three major indices have already recovered most of their drawdowns, with help from a positive real yield on bonds. A few sectors are heading into seasonal soft spots. Using the silver/gold ratio to trade silver. The buck has plunged, which isn't necessarily good for gold.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 40% Dumb Money Confidence: 69%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 13 - Big move in small stocks, real yield tailwind, dollar doldrums

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
This week, we saw that some sectors are showing breakout performances, including small stocks, Korean shares, and the industrial sector. Three major indices have already recovered most of their drawdowns, with help from a positive real yield on bonds. A few sectors are heading into seasonal soft spots. Using the silver/gold ratio to trade silver. The buck has plunged, which isn't necessarily good for gold.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
VIX
VIX Term Structure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 39%
Bearish for Stocks
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Sector Breadth
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
SKEW Index
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Dumb Money Confidence
NAAIM Exposure Index
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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
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Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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