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Daily Report : A contrarian play in TLT

Jason Goepfert
2025-06-12
T-bonds peaked in 2020, plummeted into late 2023, and have traded sideways ever since. The combination of a technical base plus a favorable seasonal period creates a potential contrarian opportunity for speculative traders. For ticker TLT, it may be "soon or never."
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Headlines

A contrarian play in TLT: T-bonds peaked in 2020, plummeted into late 2023, and have traded sideways ever since. The combination of a technical base plus a favorable seasonal period creates a potential contrarian opportunity for speculative traders. For ticker TLT, it may be "soon or never."

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 36% Dumb Money Confidence: 71%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Research

A contrarian play in TLT

By Jay Kaeppel

BOTTOM LINE
T-bonds peaked in 2020, plummeted into late 2023, and have traded sideways ever since. The combination of a technical base plus a favorable seasonal period creates a potential contrarian opportunity for speculative traders. For ticker TLT, it may be "soon or never."

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 37%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
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Rydex Money Market %
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Smart Money Confidence
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX Term Structure
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Retail Money Market Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
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NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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