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Daily Report : Three of the Big Four stage a comeback

Jason Goepfert
2025-06-11
Among the "Big Four" equity indices, the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and Nasdaq Composite have all recovered to within 5% of their record highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 continues to lag. When those three all recovered quickly, as they have recently, forward returns were excellent, particularly for the Nasdaq.
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Headlines

Three of the Big Four stage a comeback: Among the "Big Four" equity indices, the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and Nasdaq Composite have all recovered to within 5% of their record highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 continues to lag. When those three all recovered quickly, as they have recently, forward returns were excellent, particularly for the Nasdaq.

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Smart Money Confidence: 38% Dumb Money Confidence: 73%

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Research

Three of the Big Four stage a comeback

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
Among the "Big Four" equity indices, the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and Nasdaq Composite have all recovered to within 5% of their record highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 continues to lag. When those three all recovered quickly, as they have recently, forward returns were excellent, particularly for the Nasdaq.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 4%
Bullish for Stocks
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% Showing Optimism: 39%
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Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
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% Showing Excess Optimism
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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