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Daily Report : An easing in financial conditions bodes well for stocks

Jason Goepfert
2025-06-05
For only the 13th time since 1984, the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index has cycled from a one-year high to a three-month low, indicating that macroeconomic factors are less burdensome. Similar shifts saw the S&P 500 rise 92% of the time over the subsequent year.
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Headlines

An easing in financial conditions bodes well for stocks: For only the 13th time since 1984, the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index has cycled from a one-year high to a three-month low, indicating that macroeconomic factors are less burdensome. Similar shifts saw the S&P 500 rise 92% of the time over the subsequent year.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 42% Dumb Money Confidence: 68%

Risk Levels

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Bonds

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Agriculture

Research

An easing in financial conditions bodes well for stocks

By Dean Christians

BOTTOM LINE
For only the 13th time since 1984, the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index has cycled from a one-year high to a three-month low, indicating that macroeconomic factors are less burdensome. Similar shifts saw the S&P 500 rise 92% of the time over the subsequent year.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
SPY -- Up, Long-Term

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% Showing Pessimism: 7%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 35%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
Rydex Bearish Flow
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Rydex Money Market %
Rydex Sector Breadth
% Showing Excess Pessimism
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
VIX Term Structure
Dumb Money Confidence
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
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Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
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Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
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Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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