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Daily Report for 06-03-2022

Jason Goepfert
2022-06-03
Daily Report for 06-03-2022
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Headlines


The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday: The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established only one new multi-year extreme in positioning this week, a large net long position in DJIA futures. The Backtest Engine shows that when hedgers held more than a third of DJIA open interest net long, the Dow Industrials Average rose over the next three months after 51 out of 57 signals, averaging +6.7%. This move helped push hedgers to net long exposure in major equity index contracts above $13 billion. During the past 12 years, this has been an exceptionally positive sign, but it has become less reliable lately. The only other market showing a notable move is the British pound, where hedgers just started to reduce a massive net long position. This typically happens as the pound is bottoming.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 67% Dumb Money Confidence: 40%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Indicators at Extremes

Click here to view on the site (% Extremes and "Excess" tabs on the dashboard).
% Showing Pessimism: 28%
Bullish for Stocks

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
Smart Money Confidence
Inverse ETF Volume
S&P 500 Price Oscillator
S&P 500 Down Pressure
NYSE Up Issues Ratio
NYSE Up Volume Ratio
VIX
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
ISE Call/Put Ratio
CSFB Fear Barometer
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Major Index Combo
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Equity Hedging Index
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
% Showing Optimism: 13%
Bearish for Stocks

Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
AAII Allocation - Stocks
Retail Money Market Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level
VIX Transform

Phase Table

Click here to view the Phase Table on the site.

Ranks

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Sentiment Around The World

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Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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