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Daily Report : Perfect weeks don't happen in bear markets

Jason Goepfert
2025-05-19
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 enjoyed perfect weeks, rising every day of a calendar week. Both indices also rose significantly. Perfect weeks don't tend to occur during bear markets, and future returns in both indices were impressive after similar streaks.
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Headlines

Perfect weeks don't happen in bear markets: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 enjoyed perfect weeks, rising every day of a calendar week. Both indices also rose significantly. Perfect weeks don't tend to occur during bear markets, and future returns in both indices were impressive after similar streaks.

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 48% Dumb Money Confidence: 75%

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Research

Perfect weeks don't happen in bear markets

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 enjoyed perfect weeks, rising every day of a calendar week. Both indices also rose significantly. Perfect weeks don't tend to occur during bear markets, and future returns in both indices were impressive after similar streaks.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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Indicators at Extremes

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% Showing Pessimism: 12%
Bullish for Stocks
S&P 500 Down Pressure
OEX Put/Call Ratio
Insider Buy/Sell Seasonally Adj
Major Index Combo
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 33%
Bearish for Stocks
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
NYSE High/Low Ratio
ISE Call/Put Ratio
Rydex Bearish Flow
Rydex Ratio
Rydex Money Market %
Dumb Money Confidence
% Showing Excess Optimism
Intermediate Term Optimism Index (Optix)
SKEW Index
Retail Money Market Ratio
OEX Open Interest Ratio
Options Speculation Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
NYSE Available Cash
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
Mutual Fund Cash Level

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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